A leak down test will confirm it, but that bubbling in the expansion bottle certainly isn't a good sign.
If you have one of those testing kits that detects combustion gasses in the cooling system that would also confirm your suspicions.
On the plus side, sounds like you caught it early, and it's unlikely there is any consequential damage.
Oil/water passages are a long way from each other, so when the head gasket loses seal, oil and water don't often mix, it's more usual for some compression to find its way into the cooling system and some coolant to get into the cylinder when turned off. So the early symptoms will be harder to start, fires up on three and then clears to run on all four (once the water dries off from the heat of combustion) and constant fine bubbling in the expansion tank.
Once you've confirmed the head gasket issue and if you're not going to be working on it for a while, get it hot, turn it off, and drain the cooling system straight away. Pull the plugs and give the cylinders a good dose of WD40 and oil to prevent any water damage to the bore and rings.
Reasons for the head gasket failing can be many and varied. Most common is not retorquing after the gasket "settles" from heat cycling. When you do come to removing the head, all the head bolts should loosen with an audible "crack" if they are still tight. If they don't it means the gasket has settled and the bolt has lost some clamping force.
Don't see it as a setback, see it as a learning experience in engine diagnostics.
SteveC